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欧洲事故概率统计

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定量计算 dnv 事故 概率
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GAS PIPELINE INCIDENTS 10 th Report of the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group (period 1970 – 2016) Comprising: Gas Networks Ireland (Ireland) DGC (Denmark) ENAGAS, S.A. (Spain) EUSTREAM (Slovak Republic) Fluxys (Belgium) Gasum (Finland) GRT Gaz (France) National Grid (UK) Gasunie (Netherlands / Germany) NET4GAS (Czech Republic) Gasconnect (Austria) Open Grid Europe (Germany) REN Gasodutos S.A. (Portugal) Snam Rete Gas (Italy) Swedegas A.B. (Sweden) SWISSGAS (Switzerland) TIGF (France) Doc. number VA 17.R.0395 March 2018 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 2 of 50 Copyright © March 2018 by European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group (EGIG): Gas Networks Ireland (Ireland) DGC (Denmark) ENAGAS, S.A. (Spain) EUSTREAM (Slovak Republic) Fluxys (Belgium) Gasum (Finland) GRT Gaz (France) National Grid (UK) 1 NET4GAS (Czech Republic) Gasunie (Netherlands / Germany) Gasconnect GmbH (Austria) Open Grid Europe (Germany) REN Gasodutos S.A. (Portugal) Snam Rete Gas (Italy) Swedegas A.B. (Sweden) SWISSGAS (Switzerland) TIGF (France) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system or transmitted in any or by any means, electronically, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission from the copyright owners. In case of any citation, this document must be mentioned as the document of origin. Unlicensed multiple copying of the contents of this publication is illegal. Inquiries should be addressed to the Secretariat of EGIG. Comments or questions to this publication can be directed to the EGIG secretariat: N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie dr. ir. M.T. Dröge mr. R. Kenter Project Manager EGIG Secretariat EGIG P.O. Box 19 P.O. Box 19 NL - 9700 MA GRONINGEN NL - 9700 MA GRONINGEN E-mail: R.Kenter@gasunie.nl Website: http://www.EGIG.eu EGIG encourages the reader, who would like specific information not available in the report, to make direct contact with the companies involved. Company addresses are available on the EGIG website. 1 Representing National Grid, Scotia Gas Networks, Wales and the West Utilities and Northern Gas Networks. 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 3 of 50 CONTENT CONTENT 3 List of appendices 4 List of tables. 4 List of figures . 4 Summary 6 Conclusions 6 1 Introduction . 7 2 EGIG database 8 2.1 Objective 8 2.2 Criteria . 8 2.3 Contents . 8 2.4 Definitions 9 2.5 The use of EGIG data 10 3 Analyses and results . 11 3.1 Trends gas transmission system 11 3.1.1 Total length 11 3.1.2 Exposure 15 3.2 Trends of the number of incidents 17 3.3 Failure frequencies analyses 18 3.3.1 Primary failure frequencies 18 3.3.2 Secondary failure frequencies 23 3.3.2.1 Relationship between diameter class and size of leak 23 3.3.2.2 Relationship between external interference, size of leak and design parameter . 25 3.3.2.3 Relationship between corrosion, size of leak and design parameter . 28 3.3.2.4 Relationship between construction defect/material failures, leak size and design parameter . 33 3.3.2.5 Relationship between hot tap made by error, size of leak and design parameter . 36 3.3.2.6 Ground movement 38 3.3.2.7 Other and unknown 40 3.4 Other analyses . 40 3.4.1 Relationship between corrosion and age 40 3.4.2 Ignition of releases 42 3.4.3 Injuries and fatalities 43 3.4.4 Detection of incidents . 44 4 Conclusions 46 5 Bibliography . 47 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 4 of 50 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: Statistics 48 APPENDIX 2: Poisson law 50 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Primary failure frequencies 18 Table 2: Primary 5-year moving failure frequency per leak size in 2016 . 20 Table 3: Primary failure frequencies per cause (confidence intervals are given in APPENDIX 1) 21 Table 4: Primary failure frequency, cause and size of leak (2007-2016) . 23 Table 5: Secondary failure frequency, pipeline diameter and size of leak (1997-2016) 24 Table 6: Secondary failure frequency, pipeline diameter and size of leak (2007-2016) 25 Table 7: Ignition of releases per leak type . 42 Table 8: Detection of incidents . 45 Table 9: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals over different time intervals 48 Table 10: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals per leak size (period 2012–2016) . 48 Table 11: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals per cause (1970-2016) . 49 Table 12: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals per cause (1997-2016) . 49 Table 13: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals per cause (2007-2016) . 49 Table 14: Primary failure frequencies and confidence intervals per cause (2012-2016) . 49 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Total length of the European gas transmission system in EGIG 11 Figure 2: Total length per diameter . 12 Figure 3: Total length per year of construction . 12 Figure 4: Total length per type of coating 13 Figure 5: Total length per depth of cover (cd) 13 Figure 6: Total length per wall thickness (wt) . 14 Figure 7: Total length per grade of material . 14 Figure 8: Total length per Maximum Operating Pressure (p) . 15 Figure 9: Evolution of the exposure 16 Figure 10: Average age of the pipeline system . 16 Figure 11: Number of incidents per year 17 Figure 12: Cumulative number of incidents 17 Figure 13: Primary failure frequencies . 19 Figure 14: Primary (5-year moving) failure frequency per leak size . 19 Figure 15: Distribution of incidents (2007–2016) 20 Figure 16: Primary failure frequencies per cause (5-year moving average) . 21 Figure 17: Relationship primary failure frequency, cause and size of leak (1970-2016) . 22 Figure 18: Relationship primary failure frequency, cause and size of leak (2007-2016) . 22 Figure 19: Secondary failure frequency, pipeline diameter and size of leak (1997-2016) . 24 Figure 20: Relationship external interference, leak size and diameter (d) (1970-2016) . 25 Figure 21: Relationship external interference, leak size and diameter (d) (2007-2016) . 26 Figure 22: Relationship external interference, leak size and depth of cover (cd) (1970-2016) 26 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 5 of 50 Figure 23: Relationship between external interference and depth of cover (cd) 5 year moving average. 27 Figure 24: Relationship external interference, leak size and wall thickness (wt) (1970-2016) 27 Figure 25 : Relationship external interference, size of leak and wall thickness (wt) (2007-2016) 28 Figure 26: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and year of construction (1970-2016) . 29 Figure 27: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and year of construction (2007-2016) . 29 Figure 28: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and most common type of coating (1970-2016) 30 Figure 29: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and most common type of coating (2007-2016) 30 Figure 30: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and wall thickness (wt) (1970-2016) . 31 Figure 31: Relationship corrosion, size of leak and wall thickness (wt) (2007-2016) . 31 Figure 32: Breakdown of corrosion incidents on basis of location and appearance (1970-2016) 32 Figure 33: Breakdown of corrosion incidents on basis of location and appearance (2007-2016) 33 Figure 34: Relationship construction defect, size of leak and year of construction (1970-2016) 34 Figure 35: Relationship construction defect, size of leak and year of construction (2007-2016) 34 Figure 36: Relationship material failure, size of leak and year of construction (1970-2016) . 35 Figure 37: Relationship material failure, size of leak and year of construction (2007-2016) . 35 Figure 38: Relationship Material failure, size of leak and material grade (1970-2016) . 36 Figure 39: Relationship Material failure, size of leak and material grade (2007-2016) . 36 Figure 40: Relationship hot tap made by error, leak size and diameter (1970-2016) 37 Figure 41: Relationship hot tap made by error, leak size and diameter (2007-2016) 37 Figure 42: Relationship ground movement, size of leak and diameter (1970-2016) 38 Figure 43: Relationship ground movement, size of leak and diameter (2007-2016) 39 Figure 44: Distribution of the sub-causes of ground movement (1970-2016) 39 Figure 45: Distribution of the sub-causes of ground movement (2007-2016) 40 Figure 46: Relationship 5 year moving average failure frequency of corrosion incidents and year of construction . 41 Figure 47: Relationship failure frequency of corrosion incidents and the age at the time of failure. 41 Figure 48: Percentages of ruptures that ignited subdivided in diameter and pressure (1970-2016) 43 Figure 49: Percentage of accidents of groups involved in pipeline incidents (1970-2016) 44 Figure 50: Percentage fatalities of accidents of groups as a function of leak size (1970-2016) . 44 Figure 51: Detection of incidents per leak size (2007-2016) . 45 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 6 of 50 SUMMARY In 1982 six European gas transmission system operators took the initiative to gather data on the unintentional releases of gas in their transmission pipeline systems. This cooperation was formalised by the setting up of EGIG (European Gas pipeline Incident data Group). Presently, EGIG is a cooperation of seventeen gas transmission system operators in Europe and it is the owner of an extensive database of pipeline incident data collected since 1970. The EGIG database is a valuable and reliable source of information that is used to establish pipeline failure frequencies and analyse causes of failures in the gas transmission pipeline systems. CONCLUSIONS  The EGIG database is a valuable source of information on European gas pipelines and pipeline incidents.  EGIG has maintained and expanded the European Gas pipeline incident database. Seventeen gas transmission system operators in Europe now collect incident data on 142,794 km of pipelines every year. The total exposure, which expresses the length of a pipeline and its period of operation, is 4.41 million km·yr.  In the EGIG database 1,366 pipeline incidents are recorded in the period from 1970-2016.  The history of incidents collected in the database gives reliable failure frequencies. The overall failure frequency over the period 1970-2016 is equal to 0.31 incidents per year per 1,000 km.  The five year moving average failure frequency in 2016, which represents the average failure frequency over the past 5 years, equals 0.134 per year per 1,000 km.  The five year moving average and overall failure frequency have reduced over the years, although it has tended to stabilise over recent years.  Incidents caused by external interference and ground movement are characterised by potentially severe consequences. This emphasises their importance to pipeline operators and authorities.  Corrosion as a primary cause has now the same frequency rate as external interference, although consequences are much less severe. Over the last ten years, external interference, corrosion, construction defects and ground movement, represent 28%, 25%, 18% and 15%, respectively of the pipeline incidents reported. 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 7 of 50 1 INTRODUCTION The use of pipelines for the transport of large quantities of natural gas to industry and to commercial and domestic consumers represents a reliable mode of transport of energy. In 1982, six European gas transmission system operators took the initiative to gather data on the unintentional releases of gas in their transmission pipeline systems. This cooperation was formalised by the setting up of EGIG (European Gas pipeline Incident data Group). The objective of this initiative was to provide a broad basis for the calculation of safety performance of pipeline systems in Europe, thus providing a reliable picture of the numbers and frequencies of incidents. Nowadays, EGIG is a cooperation of seventeen gas transmission system operators in Europe and it is the owner of an extensive database of pipeline incident data collected since 1970. The participating companies are now: Gas Networks Ireland (Ireland) DGC (Denmark) ENAGAS, S.A. (Spain) EUSTREAM (Slovak Republic) Fluxys (Belgium) Gasum (Finland) GRT Gaz (France) National Grid (UK) 1 NET4GAS (Czech Republic) Gasunie (The Netherlands / Germany) Gasconnect GmbH (Austria) Open Grid Europe (Germany) REN Gasodutos S.A. (Portugal) Snam Rete Gas (Italy) Swedegas A.B. (Sweden) SWISSGAS (Switzerland) TIGF (France) Considering the number of participants, the extent of the pipeline systems and the exposure period involved, the EGIG database is a valuable source of information on European gas pipelines and pipeline incidents. The results of the database present an average of all participating companies and do not highlight the geographical differences. Definitions have been used consistently over the entire period. Consequently, provided that the data is correctly used and interpreted, the EGIG database gives useful information about trends which have developed over the years. Nevertheless, particular care must be given to the use and interpretation of the statistical data. The EGIG report gives the failure frequency per design parameter (diameter, pressure, wall thickness) and conclusions about combination of design parameters cannot be drawn. This report describes the structure of the EGIG database and presents different analyses and their results. The results of the analyses are commented on and give the most interesting information that can be extracted from the database. Linking of results of different analyses is provided where possible. Anyone who would like to combine different results should be very careful before drawing conclusions. 1 Representing National Grid, Cadent, Scotia Gas Networks, Wales and the West Utilities and Northern Gas Networks. 10 th EGIG-report VA 17.R.0395 1970-2016 Page 8 of 50 2 EGIG DATABASE The EGIG database is a database for pipeline data and pipeline incident data. Pipeline data and incident data of natural gas transmission pipelines are in the database from 1970 on. 2.1 Objective The objective of EGIG is to collect and present data on loss of gas incidents in order to present the safety performance of the European gas transmission network to the general public and authorities. 2.2 Criteria The required criteria for an incident to be recorded in the EGIG database are the following:  The incident must lead to an unintentional gas release.  The pipeline must fulfil the following conditions:  To be made of steel.  To be onshore.  To have a Maximum Operating Pressure higher than 15 barg.  To be located outside the fences of the gas installations. Incidents on production lines or involving equipment or components (e.g. valve, compressor) are not recorded in the EGIG database. 2.3 Contents The EGIG database contains general information about the European gas transmission pipelines system as well as specific information about the incidents. Every year the length of the pipeline system is collected for the following parameters:  Diameter  Pressure 
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